Infrastructure and Conservation Policy in Brazil

Abstract:  The development of transportation and energy infrastructure has been a major driver in the conversion of natural ecosystems in Brazil since the nineteenth century. Although this pattern is present in most countries, Brazil differs in the scale of opportunities that are still available to build its physical infrastructure while pursuing an ambitious conservation agenda. This advantage stems from the magnitude of intact ecosystems, a dynamic policy environment, and the increasing availability of biological and economic data needed to harmonize conservation with public works. Success depends on integrating conservation and infrastructure planning, rather than relying on the project based, largely ineffective environmental assessment process. Front-loading environmental mitigation and compensation will also help, as will improving public access to, and understanding of, information on the environmental and economic values at stake in major infrastructure decisions.     

Use of Substitute Species in Conservation Biology

Abstract:  In conservation biology, researchers often want to study the reasons why an endangered population is faring poorly but are unable to study it directly for logistical or political reasons. Instead they study a species that substitutes for the one of concern in the hope that it will cast light on the conservation problem. Here we outline the assumptions underlying this approach. Substitutes can be different populations or species and may be chosen because they are similar biologically to the target or representatives of a constellation of species of which the target is one. They also may be used to develop a predictive model to which the conservation target can be related. For substitutes to be appropriate, they should share the same key ecological or behavioral traits that make the target sensitive to environmental disturbance and the relationship between population vital rates and level of disturbance should match that of the target. These conditions are unlikely to pertain in most circumstances and the use of substitute species to predict endangered populations' responses to disturbance is questionable.     

Mapping Disturbances in a Mangrove Forest Using Multi-Date Landsat TM Imagery

To evaluate the accounts of local fishermen, Landsat TM images (1986, 1993, 1999) were examined to assess potential losses in the mangrove forests of the Teacapán–Agua Brava lagoon system, Mexico. A binary change mask derived from image differencing of a band 4/3 ratio was employed to calculate any changes within this forested wetland. The results indicate that by 1986 approximately 18% (or 86 km²) of the mangrove area under study was either dead or in poor condition. The majority of this damage had occurred in the eastern section of the Agua Brava basin, which coincides, with the reports of the elderly fishermen. Examination of aerial photographs from 1970 revealed no adverse impacts in this area and would suggest, as postulated by the fishermen and other scientists, that modifications in environmental conditions following the opening of a canal, Cuautlá canal, in 1972 may have initiated the large-scale mortality. Although these areas of impact are still developing, the results from the satellite data indicate that the majority of the more recent changes are occurring elsewhere in the system. Obvious in the 1999 satellite data, but not so in the 1993, are large areas of mangrove degradation in the northern section of the Teacapán region. In the Agua Brava basin, the more recent transformations are appearing on the western side of the basin. Since long-term records of environmental conditions are absent, it is difficult to determine why these latest changes are occurring or even if the earlier losses were the result of the canal. Potential agents of change that have recently been observed include a hurricane, a second canal, and the uncontrolled expansion of the Cuautlá canal since 1994.     

Refugee Density and Dependence: Practical Implications of Camp Size

Different refugee camps may have widely differing morbidity and mortality rates. Some of these differences are ascribed to environmental factors. This paper reviews the key issues relating to one environmental factor: the size of the refugee camp, and provides a tentative theoretical framework for examining the effect of camp size on refugees. This effect may not be considered because aid workers chronically underestimate the value of the refugees' contribution to their own survival. Large camps settle great numbers of refugees to the hinterland of the camp and limit their access to resources available there. This may increase refugee dependency and vulnerability. There is some slight evidence from the analysis of data provided by Mercer (1992) that child mortality rates (aged 0–4 years) are positively correlated with camp size (as inferred from child populations). If other factors allow, it might be wise for camp planners to try to limit camps to a size which allows refugees reasonable access to local resources.     

Denitrification Distributions in Four Valley and Ridge Riparian Ecosystems

/ Denitrification in riparian ecosystems can reduce the amount ofnitrogen transported from farm fields to streams. In this study, we examinedenitrification in four riparian ecosystems common to the Valley and Ridgephysiographic province in Pennsylvania, USA. The sites exhibit differentvegetation, are underlain by different rock types, and are downgradient offarm fields. Mean site denitrification rates ranging from 0.6 to 1.9 &mgr;gN/kg soil/day were measured using intact core incubation techniques. Thethree riparian sites covered with grass each exhibited greaterdenitrification rates than the wooded site. Denitrification rate wascorrelated with moisture content but not with nitrate-N or organic carboncontents. Denitrification rates were greatest near the soil surface and atpositions nearest the stream. Rates decreased uniformly with distance awayfrom the stream and also with depth in the soil for each site. While patternsof nitrate-N, moisture, and organic carbon content differ among the sites,their combined effects on denitrification support the observed, consistentdenitrification rate pattern.KEY WORDS: Denitrification; Riparian ecosystems     

ENVIRONMENTAL AUDITING: An Approach for Characterizing Tropospheric Ozone Risk to Forests

/ The risk tropospheric ozone poses to forests in the United States is dependent on the variation in ozone exposure across the distribution of the forests in question and the various environmental and climate factors predominant in the region. All these factors have a spatial nature, and consequently an approach to characterization of ozone risk is presented that places ozone exposure-response functions for species as seedlings and model-simulated tree and stand responses in a spatial context using a geographical information systems (GIS). The GIS is used to aggregate factors considered important in a risk characterization, including: (1) estimated ozone exposures over forested regions, (2) measures of ozone effects on species' and stand growth, and (3) spatially distributed environmental, genetic, and exposure influences on species' response to ozone. The GIS-based risk characterization provides an estimation of the extent and magnitude of the potential ozone impact on forests. A preliminary risk characterization demonstrating this approach considered only the eastern United States and only the limited empirical data quantifying the effect of ozone exposures on forest tree species as seedlings. The area-weighted response of the annual seedling biomass loss formed the basis for a sensitivity ranking: sensitive-aspen and black cherry (14%-33% biomass loss over 50% of their distribution); moderately sensitive-tulip popular, loblolly pine, eastern white pine, and sugar maple (5%-13% biomass loss); insensitive-Virginia pine and red maple (0%-1% loss). In the future, the GIS-based risk characterization will include process-based model simulations of the three- to 5-year growth response of individual species as large trees with relevant environmental interactions and model simulated response of mixed stands. The interactive nature of GIS provides a tool to explore consequences of the range of climate conditions across a species' distribution, forest management practices, changing ozone precursors, regulatory control strategies, and other factors influencing the spatial distribution of ozone over time as more information becomes available.KEY WORDS: Ecological risk assessment; GIS; Ozone; Risk characterization; Forests; Trees     

Impacts of Urbanization on Stream Habitat and Fish Across Multiple Spatial Scales

We analyzed the relation of the amount and spatial pattern of land cover with stream fish communities, in-stream habitat, and baseflow in 47 small southeastern Wisconsin, USA, watersheds encompassing a gradient of predominantly agricultural to predominantly urban land uses. The amount of connected impervious surface in the watershed was the best measure of urbanization for predicting fish density, species richness, diversity, and index of biotic integrity (IBI) score; bank erosion; and base flow. However, connected imperviousness was not significantly correlated with overall habitat quality for fish. Nonlinear models were developed using quantile regression to predict the maximum possible number of fish species, IBI score, and base flow for a given level of imperviousness. At watershed connected imperviousness levels less than about 8%, all three variables could have high values, whereas at connected imperviousness levels greater than 12% their values were inevitably low. Connected imperviousness levels between 8 and 12% represented a threshold region where minor changes in urbanization could result in major changes in stream condition. In a spatial analysis, connected imperviousness within a 50-m buffer along the stream or within a 1.6-km radius upstream of the sampling site had more influence on stream fish and base flow than did comparable amounts of imperviousness further away. Our results suggest that urban development that minimizes amount of connected impervious surface and establishes undeveloped buffer areas along streams should have less impact than conventional types of development.     

Effectiveness of Vegetation Surrogates for Parasitoid Wasps in Reserve Selection

Abstract:  Selecting suitable nature reserves is a continuing challenge in conservation, particularly for target groups that are time-consuming to survey, species rich, and extinction prone. One such group is the parasitoid Hymenoptera, which have been excluded from conservation planning. If basic characteristics of habitats or vegetation could be used as reliable surrogates of specific target taxa, this would greatly facilitate appropriate reserve selection. We identified a range of potential habitat indicators of the species richness of pimpline parasitoid communities (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae: Pimplinae, Diacritinae, Poemeniinae) and tested their efficiency at capturing the observed diversity in a group of small woodlands in the agricultural landscape of the Vale of York (United Kingdom). Eight of the 18 vegetation-based reserve-selection strategies were significantly better at parasitoid species inclusion than random selection of areas. The best strategy maximized richness of tree species over the entire reserve network through complementarity. This strategy omitted only 2–3 species more (out of 38 captured in the landscape as a whole) than selections derived from the parasitoid survey data. In general, strategies worked equally well at capturing species richness and rarity. Our results suggest that vegetation data as a surrogate for species richness could prove an informative tool in parasitoid conservation, but further work is needed to test how broadly applicable these indicators may be.     

Matching the Multiple Scales of Conservation with the Multiple Scales of Climate Change

Abstract:  To anticipate the rapidly changing world resulting from global climate change, the projections of climate models must be incorporated into conservation. This requires that the scales of conservation be aligned with the scales of climate-change projections. We considered how conservation has incorporated spatial scale into protecting biodiversity, how the projections of climate-change models vary with scale, and how the two do or do not align. Conservation planners use information about past and current ecological conditions at multiple scales to identify conservation targets and threats and guide conservation actions. Projections of climate change are also made at multiple scales, from global and regional circulation models to projections downscaled to local scales. These downscaled projections carry with them the uncertainties associated with the broad-scale models from which they are derived; thus, their high resolution may be more apparent than real. Conservation at regional or global scales is about establishing priorities and influencing policy. At these scales, the coarseness and uncertainties of global and regional climate models may be less important than what they reveal about possible futures. At the ecoregional scale, the uncertainties associated with downscaling climate models become more critical because the distributions of conservation targets on which plans are founded may shift under future climates. At a local scale, variations in topography and land cover influence local climate, often overriding the projections of broad-scale climate models and increasing uncertainty. Despite the uncertainties, ecologists and conservationists must work with climate-change modelers to focus on the most likely projections. The future will be different from the past and full of surprises; judicious use of model projections at appropriate scales may help us prepare.     

Cost-Effective Suppression and Eradication of Invasive Predators

Abstract: Introduced predators can have pronounced effects on naïve prey species; thus, predator control is often essential for conservation of threatened native species. Complete eradication of the predator, although desirable, may be elusive in budget‐limited situations, whereas predator suppression is more feasible and may still achieve conservation goals. We used a stochastic predator–prey model based on a Lotka‐Volterra system to investigate the cost‐effectiveness of predator control to achieve prey conservation. We compared five control strategies: immediate eradication, removal of a constant number of predators (fixed‐number control), removal of a constant proportion of predators (fixed‐rate control), removal of predators that exceed a predetermined threshold (upper‐trigger harvest), and removal of predators whenever their population falls below a lower predetermined threshold (lower‐trigger harvest). We looked at the performance of these strategies when managers could always remove the full number of predators targeted by each strategy, subject to budget availability. Under this assumption immediate eradication reduced the threat to the prey population the most. We then examined the effect of reduced management success in meeting removal targets, assuming removal is more difficult at low predator densities. In this case there was a pronounced reduction in performance of the immediate eradication, fixed‐number, and lower‐trigger strategies. Although immediate eradication still yielded the highest expected minimum prey population size, upper‐trigger harvest yielded the lowest probability of prey extinction and the greatest return on investment (as measured by improvement in expected minimum population size per amount spent). Upper‐trigger harvest was relatively successful because it operated when predator density was highest, which is when predator removal targets can be more easily met and the effect of predators on the prey is most damaging. This suggests that controlling predators only when they are most abundant is the “best” strategy when financial resources are limited and eradication is unlikely.